🏆 Chasing Europe

📅 Friday 2^nd May 2025

On today’s menu:

👉 Chasing Europe: Who’s getting Champions League?

👉 Dixon’s Disaster: Why do some pundits hate xG?

👉 Big Match xG Preview: Chelsea v Liverpool

🧠 xG Snacks

Bite-sized facts to drop in the group chat.

😬 Cole Palmer has scored 0 goals from his last 3.72(xG) in the Premier League – a 12-game dry spell

🔴 Man Utd have conceded just one shot on target in each of their last two Premier League games, worth 0.06(xG) and 0.13(xG). They’ve both gone in.

😭 Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich have a combined xG Difference of -135.12 – the worst combined total of three Premier League sides since records began.

• For context, the three relegated teams last season (Sheffield Utd, Luton and Burnley) finished with a combined -111.37.

🤯 More xG was created during Arsenal 0-1 PSG (2.92) than during Barcelona 3-3 Inter Milan (2.47).

🏆 Who’s Getting Champions League?

Maths question: how does 5 fit into 3? Answer: it doesn’t.

Newcastle, Man City, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, and Aston Villa are fighting for the final three Champions League spots, joining Liverpool and Arsenal in next year’s edition.

With just 4 games left, here’s the current lay of the land…

Performance-wise, the three teams currently leading have the strongest xG Differences so far in the Premier League this season:

👉 Chelsea: +19.82(xG)

👉 Man City: +18.36(xG)

👉 Newcastle: +18.12(xG)

👉 Aston Villa: +7.38(xG)

👉 Nott’m Forest: -4.20(xG)

(Reminder: xG Difference = xG created minus xG conceded. Like Goal Difference, but smarter.)

Key takeaways:

✅  Forest reaching the Champions League despite a negative xG Diff would be nothing short of miraculous.

✅  Aston Villa have impressed - but the underlying numbers put them behind Chelsea, City, and Newcastle.

So, who’s most likely to make the Top 5? 🔮

Our model says Man City and Newcastle are near-certainties, thanks to strong form and favourable run-ins.

🎟️ That leaves one final ticket to Europe’s top table.

It’s neck and neck between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest, who meet in a potential winner-takes-all clash at the City Ground on the final day.

As for Villa? They’ll need a flawless finish - and maybe a prayer or two.

🤯 Dixon’s Disaster

Quiz question: If a pundit hasn’t taken five minutes to understand xG, should they really be a pundit?

Expected Goals took a heavy kicking during ITV’s FA Cup semi-final coverage between Man City and Nottingham Forest last Sunday.

Late in the game, with City 2-0 up but hanging on, Lee Dixon made a good point on co-commentary: Forest have had the better chances.

Fair enough.

Sam Matterface backed him up, citing the live xG: around 1.70 to 1.30 in Forest’s favour.

Dixon’s response? Pure disdain:

"Oh, does it?" (You could almost hear the eye roll through the mic.)

What followed was a full-blown xG takedown. Dixon dismissed it as "pointless," insisting the only stat that matters is "the 2-0 in the top left corner of the screen."

The irony? In one breath, he said Forest had the better chances. In the next, he said xG - a measure of chance quality - is pointless. 🤷‍♂️

Ally McCoist jumped in too, piling onto the xG slander.

(Side note: the regularity with which McCoist says "he’s got to score!" at chances worth less than 0.50(xG) is staggering. One could imagine him flipping a coin and demanding heads.)

This anti-xG sentiment came just a few weeks after a Jamie Redknapp Sky Sports rant, branding it "nonsense".

Here’s what we know:
✅ Expected Goals has changed how we understand football (see the below post).
✅ It’s really not that hard to grasp.

So why are some pundits harder to convert than a 0.01(xG) long shot from the halfway line?

Your guess is as good as ours.

🔍 Big Match xG Preview

The weekend’s heavyweight fixture, through an xG lens.

Fixture: Chelsea v Liverpool

Summary: Chelsea must win to stay in the Champions League race. Liverpool? Already champions, but won’t be on the beach just yet 🏖️ 

Reverse Fixture: Liverpool (2.07) 2-1 (1.04) Chelsea – 20^th October 2024

Recent Form:

xG-Predicted Scoreline: Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool

Edge: Could go either way - but Chelsea's Champions League desperation might give them an extra gear.

💸 xG Bets

Smart bets backed by the data.

👉 Tottenham to Win (v West Ham) – 5/2

👉 Under 2.5 Goals (Arsenal v Bournemouth) – Evs

👉 Wolves to Win (v Man City) – 7/1

⚠️ Bet responsibly. 18+. Odds via oddschecker.com. Help: begambleaware.org.