🍿 Final Day Special

📅 Friday 23rd May 2025

On today’s menu:

👉 Premier League Finale: Five clubs, three spots - who’s heading to the Champions League?

👉 Marmoush’s xG Madness: Don’t try this at home.

👉 Big Match Preview: Forest v Chelsea through the xG lens - who blinks first?

🧠 xG Snacks

Bite-sized facts to drop in the group chat.

🇧🇪 Kevin De Bruyne has generated 0.53(xA) per 90 mins since arriving in the Premier League - effectively setting up a goal every other game. Elite.

🥱 Chelsea (0.86) 1-0 (0.43) Man Utd was the lowest xG match of the last four gameweeks.

🥈 Arsenal have now finished 2nd on Expected Points for the third straight season, behind Man City twice and Liverpool this year.

👀 Even so, Liverpool’s current total xPts (80) is still 2 short of Arsenal’s 82 from last season.

🏟️ Craven Cottage has seen the least total xG of any stadium this season - just 44.11 generated.

🍿 The Premier League Finale

The race for Europe is going down to the very final day.

🔍️ The State of Play

✅ Champions League confirmed:
Liverpool, Arsenal, and (somehow) Tottenham have secured their spots.

🎟️ Still in the hunt:
Man City, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest are battling for the remaining three European places - with Forest and Chelsea facing off in a decisive clash.

👀 Still in the mix:
Brighton and Brentford cling to a mathematical chance of reaching Europe too.

Here’s how it looks heading into the final gameweek…

🧠 The xG Take

• Fulham v Man City: The visitors are odd-on to win, albeit a draw would realistically be enough to secure a top 5 spot.

• Newcastle v Everton: The Magpies are comfortable favourites to get the job done in front of their home crowd.

• Man Utd v Aston Villa: The Villans should win against a Man Utd team who will be mentally and physically drained after defeat in Bilbao

🎲 Probability twist:
Despite all three of City, Newcastle, and Villa being odds-on favourites, the chance of all three winning, based on xG-derived probabilities, is just 26%.

This matters for Nottingham Forest, who need one of those three to slip up to stand any chance of sneaking in.

For Chelsea, the equation is clearer: win, and you’ll almost certainly be hosting European royalty at Stamford Bridge next season.

👀 Waiting in the Wings

Two clubs with strong xG credentials - Brighton and Brentford - are still in the Conference League conversation.

🧮 Here's how they do it:

• 8th place could secure a Conference League spot if Chelsea finish 7th and then win the Conference League final vs Real Betis next Wednesday.

• Brighton currently hold 8th, but if they lose to Spurs and Brentford beat Wolves, the Bees leapfrog them.

Got it? Good. It’s complicated. But the chaos is beautiful.

🚀 Unexpected Goal of the Week

Where probability takes the week off.

⚽️ Scorer: Omar Marmoush
🆚 Match: Man City vs Bournemouth
📈 xG Value: 0.01

Why it was unexpected:
This strike had a 1 in 100 chance of hitting the net - the kind of goal you score once in a career. 35-yards out, clean strike, top bins. Filthy.

The xG Verdict:
“Don’t try this at home.”

🔍 Big Match xG Preview

The weekend’s heavyweight fixture, through an xG lens.

🆚 Fixture: Nottingham Forest v Chelsea

🏟️ Kick-off: Sunday 4.00pm (BST)

📝 Summary: Both teams go into this fixture knowing that a win is a necessity. For Chelsea, three points would all but secure a Champions League. Forest need a helping hand from Man Utd or Everton.

⏱️ Previous Fixture: Chelsea (2.30) 1-1 (0.81) Nott’m Forest – 6^th Oct 2024

📊 Recent Form (last 6 games):

🧠 xG-Predicted Scoreline: Nott’m Forest 1-2 Chelsea

⚖️ Edge: Expect a tense, high-stakes battle. Forest will be roared on by a fired-up City Ground, but Chelsea’s attacking quality and recent xG form could prove decisive.

💸 xG Bets

Smart bets, backed by the data.

✅ Arsenal to Win to Nil (v Southampton) – 13/10

🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 5/6

🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 12/5

🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 16/5

🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 9/1

⚠️ Bet responsibly. 18+. Odds via oddschecker.com. Help: begambleaware.org.

🤝 Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber here: https://xgphilosophy.com/upgrade