👀 How bad are Man Utd?

📅 Friday 9th May 2025

On today’s menu:

👉 Red Flags at Old Trafford: How bad are Man Utd?

👉 Goalkeepers’ Union: Surprising shot-stopping stats

👉 Big Match xG Preview: Liverpool v Arsenal

🧠 xG Snacks

Bite-sized facts to drop in the group chat.

😬 Mo Salah has just 2 goal involvements from his last 5.52(xGI) in the league, a run spanning 6 matches.

🤯 LA Galaxy lost 1-0 to Sporting KC in the MLS, despite creating 1.57(xG) and conceding 0.00(xG). (Own goals don’t count towards xG).

🚧 Burnley conceded 16 goals from 41.08(xG) in the Championship this season - 25.08 fewer goals than expected given the chances they conceded.

🧤 Yann Sommer prevented 1.44 goals against Barcelona in the second leg of the Champions League semi-final.

🔫 Arsenal scored 1 goal from 5.11(xG) in their Champions League semi-final tie with PSG. That makes it 1 goal from 9.90(xG) in semi-finals this year, including vs Newcastle in the FA Cup. Ouch.

🔴 How bad are Man Utd?

Mediocrity, mayhem, and Maguire at centre-forward.

They may be in a European final, but Manchester United have officially confirmed their worst-ever Premier League campaign - racking up 19 fewer points than their previous worst season (2021/22) with 3 games left.

They currently sit 15th. That’s not a typo. Fifteenth. Closer to the drop than the top. And they still haven’t hit the traditional 40-point safety mark.

So… how bad are they really?

Let’s look at the data.

⚽️ Can’t Finish Their Dinner

The Red Devils have scored 42 goals this season - only the bottom three, Everton and West Ham have registered fewer.

But before United fans hurl their phones at the wall in annoyance, the xG data offers a small consolation: they should have scored about 8 more according to expected goals.

Interestingly, there’s no singular scapegoat here. No Darwin Nunez or Nicolas Jackson-like presence blazing sitters wide every week.

Yes, a few key players have underperformed xG:

• Garnacho: 6 goals, xG says ~9

• Zirkzee: 3 goals, xG says ~5

• Bruno Fernandes: 8 goals, xG says ~10

But these aren’t exactly disgraceful numbers.

So what’s to blame? Well, it appears to be death by a thousand small underperformances.

In fact, of the 25 United players who’ve attempted a shot in the league this season, only three have outperformed their xG: Amad Diallo, Rashford, and Lisandro Martinez - a man more known for kicking ankles than hitting the top corner.

It’s rare to see this many players underperform. Regression to the mean suggests this should improve.

🧤 Onana, What’s My Name?

(Answer: The Guy Quietly Stopping More Than He Should)

At the other end of the pitch, United have conceded 51 goals this season - the 9th most in the league. But xG says they should’ve let in ~55. In short: it could’ve been worse.

Despite some high-profile wobbles and the occasional heart-attack pass, André Onana has quietly been one of United’s better performers. According to xGOT (Expected Goals on Target - which adjusts for shot quality after it’s been hit), he’s actually saved United 1.5 goals more than your average keeper would have.

Add that to the 3 goals he “over-saved” last season, and Onana’s prevented a total of 4.5 goals over two seasons - that puts him ahead of Alisson (who’s at +1.0 over the same period for Liverpool).

So while Nemanja Matic may think Onana is “one of the worst goalkeepers in Man Utd history”, the data says otherwise.

[Reminder: xGOT measures the quality of on-target shots, allowing us a better insight into the shot-stopping abilities of goalkeepers]

📈 Has Amorim Made a Difference?

Short answer: Yes - but it's been a rollercoaster.

The chart below tracks Man Utd’s 6-game rolling average for xG Created (dotted light green), xG Conceded (dotted red), and overall xG Difference (solid green) since the start of last season. The yellow dashed line marks Amorim’s first game in charge.

Whenever the dark green line is over the 0.00 on the right-hand axis, United have created more xG than their opponent over the last six games. When the line is below 0.00, they’ve created less.

Before he took over, things were dire. United were averaging 0.70(xG) less than their opponents across the previous six games. Basically: every week felt like an uphill battle.

But Amorim’s arrival brought a noticeable bump. Within seven games, their rolling xG Difference climbed to +0.18, hinting at better structure and clearer attacking ideas.

Then came the slump. By the time they played Ipswich again (match 65 in the chart), that xG Diff had plummeted to -0.93 - worse than when he started. Not exactly the glow-up fans were hoping for.

But credit where it’s due: the recovery since then has been impressive. Since that low, United have tightened up at the back, conceding less xG over a 6-game stretch than at any other point in the last two seasons. That defensive solidity has powered a rebound in xG Difference to the best levels under Amorim so far.

So, while they’re still some way off competing at the top end, the trendline is finally moving in the right direction

🧠 The Verdict

So how bad are United?

• They should’ve scored more ✅

• They could’ve conceded more ❌

• They’re improving under Amorim… slowly ⏳

• And yet, they remain 15th 🫠

Less of a car crash, but still not roadworthy.

🔍 Big Match xG Preview

The weekend’s heavyweight fixture, through an xG lens.

Fixture: Liverpool v Arsenal

Kick-off: Sunday 4.30pm (BST)

Summary: The best attack in the Premier League hosts the best defence. Despite a lack of true jeopardy in this fixture, both teams will be looking to end the season on a positive note.

Reverse Fixture: Arsenal (1.14) 2-2 (1.10) Liverpool – 27^th Oct 2024

Recent Form (last 6 games):

xG-Predicted Scoreline: Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal

Edge: Arsenal's legs (and minds) may be heavy post-Europe. The Anfield factor gives Liverpool the upper hand.

💸 xG Bets

Smart bets, backed by the data.

✅ Omar Marmoush Anytime Goalscorer (v Southampton) – 5/4

🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to reveal – 13/10

🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to reveal – 6/4

🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to reveal – 7/1

🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to reveal – 9/1

⚠️ Bet responsibly. 18+. Odds via oddschecker.com. Help: begambleaware.org.

🤝 Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber here: https://xgphilosophy.com/upgrade

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