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⚖️ Justice is Served
Where does your team deserve to be in the Premier League table?
“Justice is truth in action,” said Benjamin Disraeli.
In the Premier League, we call that the Justice Table - where xG tells us the truth on who’s getting what they deserve… and who isn’t.
It’s time to uncover the biggest overperformers, underachievers, and outright statistical frauds of the season.
Let’s dive in…
📅 Friday 16th May 2025
On today’s menu:
👉 Justice is Served: How good have your team actually been this season?
👉 xGeordies: Newcastle duo leading the recent xG charts
👉 Up for the Cup: Crystal Palace v Man City xG Preview
🧠 xG Snacks
Bite-sized facts to drop in the group chat.
🏆️ Liverpool have officially collected the most Expected Points this season - the first team other than Man City to do so since 2015/16.
🔥 The two players who have generated the most xG in the Premier League since the start of April both play for Newcastle: Alexander Isak (6.32) and Harvey Barnes (4.42).
⬇️ Southampton have only ‘won’ the xG battle in 4 of 36 league games this term.
🔒️ The aggregate score between the top two in the Premier League this season is: Liverpool (3.74) 4-4 (3.75) Arsenal
Gif by Newcastle_United on Giphy
⚖️ Justice is Served
The league table lies.
Nottingham Forest aren’t actually the 7th best team in the league. Tottenham aren’t actually the fourth worst. Deep down, most fans know this already.
Football always has an element of luck. And if you’re reading this newsletter, you already know xG helps strip that luck away - revealing performance over outcome.
That’s the aim of the Justice Table - a version of the league based not on goals, but on expected goals.
Each match awards xPoints (xP) based on the quality of chances created and conceded. Boss a game? You’re looking at up to 3.00(xP). Get battered? Closer to 0.00(xP).
So, who’s been fortunate, and who’s been let down by the xG Gods?
🥁 Time to reveal this season’s Justice Table...
🏆️ Liverpool: Worthy Winners
According to xG, Liverpool are deserved Premier League champions.
They lead the league in both xG created (86.10) and xG conceded (36.00) - the best attack and defence on paper.
Remarkably, they’re the first team not named Man City to top the Expected Points table since Arsenal in 2015/16.
As for Arsenal - they’ll finish 2nd in the Justice Table for the third straight season (insert runners-up meme here).
But the title race wasn’t as one-sided as the real table suggests - the 15-point gap shrinks to just 8 on xG.
🍒 Champions League Cherries?
Quietly, Bournemouth have been exceptional.
Their underlying numbers rank them third in the Justice Table - suggesting the Cherries could easily be in the Champions League mix.
They’re not the only ones who have deserved more:
Crystal Palace: Should’ve scored ~19 more goals - outrageous underperformance
Tottenham: ~11 points lost to bad luck
Man Utd: A death by a thousand cuts - a steady stream of xG underperformance up top
🔽 Whipping Boys
The less said about the bottom three, the better.
The three sides promoted from the Championship last season have had horrific campaigns.
Their combined xG difference is -138.01, the worst combined total of three teams since xG records began.
That said, Southampton can count themselves a little unlucky. Their underlying performances have been closer to a 22-point season, not the catastrophic 12-point return that draws parallels with the infamous 2007/08 Derby side.
The question now: can Leeds, Burnley, or the play-off winner buck the recent trend of all three promoted teams immediately suffering the drop?
🔍 Big Match xG Preview
The weekend’s heavyweight fixture, through an xG lens.
Fixture: Crystal Palace v Man City
Kick-off: Saturday 4.30pm (BST)
Summary: Man City will be determined to salvage silverware at the end of an underwhelming season. But Crystal Palace, resurgent in recent months, won’t roll over easily. This could be closer than many expect.
Previous Fixture: Man City (3.92) 5-2 (2.30) Crystal Palace – 12th Apr 2025
Recent Form (last 6 games):
Crystal Palace | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
🔥 xG Created | 11.73(xG) | 10.87(xG) |
🚧 xG Conceded | 8.91(xG) | 6.65(xG) |
📊 xG Difference | +2.82(xG) | +4.22(xG) |
xG-Predicted Scoreline: Crystal Palace 1-1 Man City
Edge: A tight contest is likely on the wide, traditionally low-scoring Wembley pitch. With both sides boasting match-winners, this may come down to a single decisive moment.
💸 xG Bets
Smart bets, backed by the data.
✅ Under 2.5 Goals (Crystal Palace v Man City) – 11/10
🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 11/5
🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 9/5
🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 14/5
🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 6/1
⚠️ Bet responsibly. 18+. Odds via oddschecker.com. Help: begambleaware.org.
🤝 Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber here: https://xgphilosophy.com/upgrade
That’s all for this week. Go well, xG’ers.
The xG Edge
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