- The xG Edge
- Posts
- 🏆 The Final Showdown
🏆 The Final Showdown
Data v Destiny: Who will win the Champions League final?
Well, here we are. One game left. One giant shiny trophy. And two teams who’ve battled through chaos, controversy, and the quirks of UEFA’s new group stage format.
🇫🇷 PSG, with their history of superstars, super-yachts, and super-expectations, are desperate to finally shake off their “billion-euro bottlers” tag.
🇮🇹 Inter, meanwhile, have forged a route to the final that has made a mockery of xG models - proving that sometimes all you need is grit, good goalkeeping, and a helping hand from the xG Gods.
This is it: a final dripping with narrative, style clashes, and just enough chaos to keep the spreadsheets sweating.
We’ve crunched the numbers so you don’t have to – and whether you're betting, bragging, or just watching with a pint in hand, you'll be the smartest voice in the room come kick-off.
Let’s dive into the final feast of the season… 🍽️
📅 Friday 30th May 2025
On today’s menu:
👉 The Final Showdown: Who lifts the trophy, and what does the xG say?
👉 Magic Mo: Salah tears up the xG record books.
👉 xG-Backed Bets: Our data-driven picks for the UCL final.
🧠 xG Snacks
Bite-sized facts to drop in the group chat.
⏲️ The last time Inter were in a Champions League final, the score finished Man City (0.95) 1-0 (2.07) Inter Milan.
👑 Mo Salah became the first player to top both the xG and xA charts in a Premier League season. Bow down.
🏠️ Aston Villa clocked a whopping xG Difference of +17.80 at Villa Park, but a brutal -10.68 on their travels in the league.
🤯 Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored just 3 goals from 8.12(xG) - the most wasteful finisher in the league this season.
📐 Arsenal scored 16 goals from 24.26(xG) from set pieces this season.
Gif by lfc on Giphy
🍿 The Grand Finale
Paris Saint-Germain, fuelled by a high-octane attack which has generated 102.89(xG) in Ligue 1 this season, take on Inter Milan - who’ve danced their way to the final by outlasting their xG and outsmarting the odds.
The Parisians are chasing their first-ever Champions League title, while Inter are aiming to make history of their own - though their journey’s been powered more by resilience and shot-stopping heroics (Yann Sommer prevented 1.44 goals in the second leg of the semi against Barca, according to xGOT) than attacking dominance.
🛣️ Route to the Final:
PSG bulldozed their way past three English sides:
PSG (5.33) 1-1 (1.98) Liverpool – Dominated the Premier League champs.
PSG (4.10) 5-4 (3.86) Aston Villa – A breathless goal-fest, but PSG’s clinical edge saw them through.
PSG (3.08) 3-1 (5.11) Arsenal – Rode their luck, but punished the Gunners where it mattered.
Inter Milan had a trickier (and luckier) path:
Inter (4.55) 4-1 (1.99) Feyenoord – One-way traffic. The most comfortable win of their run.
Inter (2.38) 4-3 (4.25) Bayern Munich - Somehow won 2-1 at the Allianz Arena, despite losing 2.88-0.95 on xG.
Inter (3.68) 7-6 (4.56) Barcelona – Converted nearly every sniff of a chance. Scored 11 goals from 6.06(xG) in the quarters and semis. Hold on to your spreadsheets.
📊 Recent Form (last 6 league games):
PSG | Inter Milan | |
|---|---|---|
🔥 xG Created | 17.70(xG) | 9.55(xG) |
🚧 xG Conceded | 5.55(xG) | 9.72(xG) |
📊 xG Difference | +12.15(xG) | -0.17(xG) |
🧠 xG-Predicted Scoreline: PSG 1-0 Inter Milan
⚖️ Edge: PSG have the stronger data profile - both in Europe and domestically. Expect a cagey final, but one where the French champions’ firepower proves decisive. That is, unless Inter’s “xG-defying magic trick” rolls on one last time…
💸 xG Bets
Smart bets, backed by the data.
✅ 0-0 at Half Time (PSG v Inter) – 2/1
🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 14/5
🔒️ Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber to unlock – 6/1
⚠️ Bet responsibly. 18+. Odds via oddschecker.com. Help: begambleaware.org.
🤝 Become a ‘Bettor’ subscriber here: https://xgphilosophy.com/upgrade
That’s all for this week, enjoy the final 🏆️
The xG Edge
Reply